How Is Bitcoin Expected To Behave In The Next Decade?
The Bitcoin network will continue to exist long into the future and become more widespread and popular than today. The blockchain technology behind Bitcoin serves a function that no one has ever served before, and there is no reason why this cannot continue.
As long as the https://bit-iq.io/ continues to be helpful in some capacity, it is expected to grow further in popularity and price. It would be shocking if Bitcoin does not continue to increase in value at least until it consumes some large amount (e.g., 1% of the world’s GDP) of economic resources over its market cap over the next ten years. The future of bitcoin is unknown.
Extreme dips and rises in price are expected to continue, but overall growth should lead the price to rise more than it has ever before by about 20% per year (on average). Many people who can’t see past the present adoption of bitcoin think that its lack of widespread use will cause it to fail.
However, this ignores that the whole idea of bitcoin is based on the fact that it will become more popular in the future when everyone learns about it and begins to use it. So far, it can be said that its adoption has grown faster than most people imagined (i.e. 600% growth in 2013 alone).
But because bitcoin is growing exponentially, the real growth has only just begun. So one thing that can be said about the future of bitcoin is that it will be different from what many people currently expect.
The reasons for this are that bitcoin’s exponential growth means that significant changes are slow until they reach an inflexion point, at which point they become much bigger very quickly.
For example, bitcoin has doubled in size every eight months for the last three years. This means that it is growing at a rate of about 600%. The growth of bitcoin is so massive that if you know what statistic to look at, you can predict its future price as well as know some critical events in its history (e.g., the rise in price in November 2011 was due to a significant spike in the daily number of transactions).
The reason that exponential growth cannot be predicted is that it follows an S-curve. So, for example, initially, its users were growing at a rate of about 100% per month.
As a result, various people predicted that bitcoin users would double every two months. But this is not what happened at all, and it didn’t even come close. Instead, what happened was that the rate of growth dropped by half every time the previous doubling occurred (i.e., 100%, then 200%, then 400%, 800%, etc.). As a result, after six doublings, the number of users was still only 8% of where it was expected to be.
However, this was only because the growth rate dropped by half each time. If you extrapolate this further, you will see that after a few more doublings, bitcoin’s popularity grew to about 400 times what it had initially been predicted.
The main reason for this S-curve of growth is because mathematical exponentials are more accurate at first but eventually become useless. So if you were to graph the number of users against time, it would start with a steep positive gradient that would flatten over time until it becomes almost horizontal.
The same principle and graph as mentioned above apply to anything that grows exponentially. It applies to everything from bacteria populations growing in a petri dish to the economy of countries growing at rates of millions per year.
In summary, if you know what statistic to look at, you can predict the future price of bitcoin with reasonable accuracy by looking at its historical data and knowing some critical events in its history.
In addition, bitcoin’s exponential growth means that it will continue to grow for a very long time and eventually become the whole world’s currency, or something similar to it, which has an even higher potential value per bitcoin.
In math terms, “exponential” is when the most significant digits grow at a specific rate, and “logarithmic” is when the least significant digits grow at a specific rate.